(back)
Here's what I've been reading, watching, and listening to:
Tourism down? Let’s squash it even further.
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Interesting conversation between Ross Douthat and Julie Brown that serves as an explainer of the Jeffrey Epstein case.
Admittedly, I hadn’t dug in too deep here and found this conversation to be extremely helpful in understanding the case against Epstein. Highly recommend giving this a listen.
The plan could cost the US government double what it’s projected to take in for 2025, according to one estimate. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a centrist watchdog group, estimated a preliminary $600 billion cost for the proposal, if the dividends were designed along the lines of government stimulus payments during the Covid pandemic.
Net US tariff revenue for the fiscal year through September totaled $195 billion and many economists have penciled in about $300 billion for calendar-year 2025.
Two things:
1) We need people that understand math to run the government.
2) The act of taxing consumers and businesses, then refunding the taxes, but also spending more than we take in to score political points is incredibly dumb.
A Vernon Hills, IL business owner after investing 40M in a new warehouse 4 years ago hit with 20M in tariffs this year (vs anticipated 2M):
“Evil companies making products overseas, don’t invest in America,” he said, caricaturing pro-tariff arguments. “I’m sorry, but that does not cut it with me. This was not free, and this is technology, and most of this came from the United States, and these people that are working here are American.”
The looming bailout is a refutation of the claim that tariffs are cost-free. They aren’t if, like soybean growers, you are the target of retaliation. Mr. Trump likes to say that tariffs are a windfall for the Treasury, but not if much of that revenue is going back out the door in subsidies to offset the tariff harm.
First Mr. Trump imposes tariffs that he says only hurt foreigners. But when that turns out not to be true, he takes political credit for payments to offset the damage as if he’s somehow protecting the American farmer. How about not hurting them in the first place?
Bingo.