(back)
Here's what I've been reading, watching, and listening to:
Interesting conversation between Ross Douthat and Julie Brown that serves as an explainer of the Jeffrey Epstein case.
Admittedly, I hadn’t dug in too deep here and found this conversation to be extremely helpful in understanding the case against Epstein. Highly recommend giving this a listen.
The plan could cost the US government double what it’s projected to take in for 2025, according to one estimate. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a centrist watchdog group, estimated a preliminary $600 billion cost for the proposal, if the dividends were designed along the lines of government stimulus payments during the Covid pandemic.
Net US tariff revenue for the fiscal year through September totaled $195 billion and many economists have penciled in about $300 billion for calendar-year 2025.
Two things:
1) We need people that understand math to run the government.
2) The act of taxing consumers and businesses, then refunding the taxes, but also spending more than we take in to score political points is incredibly dumb.
A Vernon Hills, IL business owner after investing 40M in a new warehouse 4 years ago hit with 20M in tariffs this year (vs anticipated 2M):
“Evil companies making products overseas, don’t invest in America,” he said, caricaturing pro-tariff arguments. “I’m sorry, but that does not cut it with me. This was not free, and this is technology, and most of this came from the United States, and these people that are working here are American.”
The looming bailout is a refutation of the claim that tariffs are cost-free. They aren’t if, like soybean growers, you are the target of retaliation. Mr. Trump likes to say that tariffs are a windfall for the Treasury, but not if much of that revenue is going back out the door in subsidies to offset the tariff harm.
First Mr. Trump imposes tariffs that he says only hurt foreigners. But when that turns out not to be true, he takes political credit for payments to offset the damage as if he’s somehow protecting the American farmer. How about not hurting them in the first place?
Bingo.
After a report showing only 22,000 new jobs in August, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Trump he believes the employment numbers will start to tick up once policies from his “Big Beautiful” tax-and-spending law are fully implemented heading into next year, according to a person close to Bessent.
Earlier, at a closed-door gathering in the Oval Office, other advisers told Trump it was up to him how to publicly address the weak jobs data and he could just breeze past the information by pointing to the future, according to a senior administration official. They assured him the economic indicators will show improvements as 2025 comes to a close, the official said.
The challenge here is that most forecasts expect modest growth in 2026 (around 1.4 % to ~2 %), not a dramatic surge. Many also flag downside risks from tariffs, policy uncertainty, and a cooling labor market. The consensus is cautious — not a boom.
Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary discusses the recent decision to approve updated Covid-19 vaccines for a smaller population. In an interview with host Ryan Knutson, Makary also discusses his thoughts on restoring confidence in public health policy and explains the agency’s new crackdown on pharmaceutical ads
Insightful conversation with the current FDA commissioner on its focus on using data to inform vaccine recommendations. There was one bit of the conversation in which he used anecdotal evidence of COVID vaccines harming children that I found to be irresponsible framing (ie, you shouldn’t be referencing anecdotes in this type of conversation if your operating basis is leveraging data for recommendations). However, I appreciate that he’s saying they don’t have the data yet and are investigating each claim made in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting (VAERS) database to validate reports with doctors and hospitals.